The Player Comparison
Projections say who's better on average. They don't say how often. Pick any two players — or a 2-on-2 — and this tool plays the matchup 50,000 times with each player's real outcome distribution and the correlations between them, then tells you who outscores whom and what percent of the time. Same engine as the SimSlate contest simulator.
Pick the matchup
Type a name to search this week's DraftKings main slate.
Side A
Side B
Result
50,000 correlated simulations, deterministic per matchup.
Pick a player for each side and run the matchup.
"Projected 2 points higher" is not "better tonight"
A projection is the middle of a wide, lopsided range. NFL scoring runs on touchdowns and broken plays, so player outcomes are right-skewed: the median week sits below the average, and the good weeks are far above it. When two players' ranges overlap — and they almost always do — the higher projection wins the head-to-head far less often than people assume. A 2-point projection edge is typically a 55–60% proposition, not a lock.
Correlation changes the answer
Comparing a QB to his own WR? They boom in the same games, which pulls the head-to-head tighter than the raw ranges suggest. Comparing players in the same game pits them against the same game environment; players in different games are nearly independent. The comparison uses the engine's correlation structure, so those effects are priced in — a detail almost every eyeball comparison misses.
From "who wins" to "who's the play"
Win percentage is half the question. The other half is what the field is doing: a player who wins the head-to-head 45% of the time at a third of the ownership can be the better GPP play. SimSlate members see each player's projection, projected ownership and optimal-lineup rate right in the comparison — and the full product simulates entire contests, dupe tax and payout curve included, to rank real lineups by ROI.
Questions people ask
Why isn't the higher-projected player a lock to win?
A projection is a mean, not a score. Outcomes are wide and right-skewed, so a player projected a couple points higher usually wins the head-to-head only 55–60% of the time. The tool simulates full distributions, not averages.
Does it account for players in the same game?
Yes — outcomes are drawn with the same correlation structure the contest simulator uses. A QB and his own receiver boom together; same-game players share the game environment. Those matchups come out tighter than raw projections suggest.
How many simulations does it run?
50,000 correlated draws per comparison, from each player's fitted non-normal distribution. The result is deterministic — the same matchup always returns the same percentages.
What do SimSlate members see extra?
Projection, projected field ownership and optimal-lineup rate for every player in the comparison — the context that turns a win percentage into a leverage decision. Free users see who wins and how often.
Leverage notes, weekly.
One email a week during the season: where the field is over-concentrated, where the sim sees leverage, and the dupe traps to avoid — from real engine runs.